News Analysis by Shina Badaru

January 30, 2010 The race for the seat of the chief of the nation’s regulatory agency hit a feverish pitch last week after indications emerged that its Board may have recommended three names for the influential position of its Executive Vice Chairman/Chief Executive, the person that is to run the day-to-day affairs for the next five years.

President Umaru Yar'Adua: Final decider in race for NCC top job?

Technology Times had on Thursday exclusively reported that the Board of Commissioners of Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) may have recommended the names of a former top shot of privately owned phone company, MTS First Wireless, Eugene Juwa and two other top government officials to succeed its incumbent Executive Vice Chairman/ Chief Executive, Ernest Ndukwe.

Following this, industry stakeholders have refocused the heated race for the position even as the incumbent finds himself in the centre of plans to extend his tenure, an allegation that his office has denied.

However, the Board’s recommendation last week opened a floodgate of questions, interests and last-ditch political manoeuvrings among interested persons and groups with either their eyes on the position or have strategic interests in who becomes the next EVC.

Hitherto, various people within the Commission have either been named to have either openly or indirectly expressed interest in the office of the EVC, top among them being Bashir Gwandu, the current Executive Commissioner, Technical Services, NCC.

Gwandu was allegedly linked with botched moves last year to oust the incumbent EVC over the 60-year retirement age limit. The former may have fallen out of favour with the EVC in the wake of the botched move to unseat him.

NCC insiders wager that Gwandu’s bid to succeed Ndukwe may not be backed by the latter following last year’s attempt to remove the EVC from office, a development that was to be the crescendo of strained relationship between the two. It is also something that is an open secret within the multi-storey glass edifice, one of the gains of Ndukwe’s 10-year leadership, housing NCC in Abuja, the nation’s seat of power.

Ndukwe, who seats on the influential Board of the Commission, may have a crucial role to play in choosing his successor, analysts reckon citing the relatively cordial relationship that have marked his two-term tenure with Chairman, Board of Commissioners of NCC, Ahmed Joda.

Joda, a veteran Civil servant, who has the ears of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who appointed Ndukwe into office in February 2000, is also considered influential within government circles and within the current administration of ailing President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.

In race: Bashir Gwandu of NCC

Last year, a new directive in the Civil Service over tenure of Directors led to the exit of Steve Adzenge, former Director of Legal Services of NCC and an ally of Attorney-General of the Federation, Michael Aondoakaa (SAN). Adzenge is also speculated to be interested in the position and may be using his top connections in the current administration to connect the NCC’s top seat.

Outgoing EVC/Chief Executive, NCC, Ernest Ndukwe

Another top shot of NCC, Stephen Bello, who is currently Executive Commissioner (Stakeholder Management), already has his eyes on the job not ruling out Director, New Media and Information Security, NCC, Sylvanus Ehikioya swelling the rank of insiders wanting to succeed their boss.

Hitherto, speculations have been rife that Raymond Akwule, who is President of the Digital Bridge Institute (DBI), a telecoms training institution set up by NCC and CEO, Netpost, is also in the race alongside Vice President (Academics & Student Affairs) in Kano, DBI, Umar Garba Danbatta, another professor at the institution swelling the rank of insiders connected indirectly to NCC. NCC had in May 2004 established DBI to foster human capacity development and promote rapid growth and development in the telecoms marketplace in Nigeria.

But interest in the EVC position is not coming only from within NCC’s Glass House as over the last few months, President of Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), Emmanuel Ekuwem, has been working steadily to ensure a repeat of the precedent that brought Ndukwe into office 10 years ago.

Ndukwe was President of ATCON, the influential pressure group of the nation’s telecoms industry when he was appointed into office by Obasanjo, a move by that administration to encourage telecoms professionals with management savvy to reverse the fortune of the parlous telecoms industry at that time dominated by government-owned Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (NITEL). NITEL, alongside a handful of privately owned operators, kept services very high, inaccessible and unavailable for a critical mass of Nigerians.

Beyond the half a million lines in the country then, Ndukwe, with Obasanjo’s mandate also had to clean up the licence landscape as most of the frequency spectra were held by cronies of previous military governments. These licensees were hardly interested in rolling out service but more interested in peddling their booty to international investors who were hardly interested in staking their capital into what was then considered Nigeria’s risky economic landscape.

NCC, under Ndukwe’s leadership, was to change that perception, with handling of the 2001 GSM Spectrum Auction, an exercise considered largely transparent and was also to subsequently achieve two key feats: it brought in the big mobile phone operators that were also the harbingers of the internationally-acclaimed mobile telephony revolution in Nigeria and also refocused the attention of the international investment community on Nigeria as a key investment destination.

In race: President, ATCON, Emmanuel Ekuwem

Additionally, the booming telecoms market today boasts over 70million active phone lines offered by the big GSM operators and smaller CDMA operators offering a bouquet of voice, data and Internet services.

Ndukwe’s popularity was later to soar on account of his management of the regulatory landscape in the country, a success his readily attributes to three key ‘F’s (fairness, forthrightness and firmness) that guide affairs at the agency that has become a model with the nation’s bureaucracy.

ATCON’s Ekuwem, who also eyes the top position, hopes that the pressure group can replicate the 2000 feat of proving the leadership of the telecoms regulatory agency from the “industry”, according to the thinking within its leadership. But that “thinking” is hardly a consensus across players in the sector following the identified divisions within telecoms industry.

Over the years, as the big mobile operators grew in market influence, they have gradually reckoned that their strategic vested interests was not adequately covered under the umbrella of ATCON and have pushed their own industry pressure group, the GSM Consultative Forum of Nigeria, to advance their interests and function largely as interest group for the GSM sector; the hefty players controlling over 90 per cent of the subscribership base in the telecoms market.

Recent divisions with GSM Forum has seen the big players backing the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), which caters for the smaller CDMA operators and lately the GSM operators have featured prominently on its radar with the relative dormancy of its own pressure group.

So, the telecoms industry finds itself divided as President of ALTON, Gbenga Adebayo is also in the race to succeed Ndukwe. Adebayo’s pursuit also puts him in competition against sister pressure group, the Ekuwem-led ATCON. That is also seen by analysts as dividing the formidable front that the telecoms sector may have held above people within and outside NCC vying for the top office. It is pivotal for telecoms players as the individual would guide the direction that the fortunes of the telecoms market will sway after Ndukwe leaves office.

Last week Thursday, when Technology Times exclusively reported on the recommendations of the NCC Board, which include a former Senior Vice President of MTS First Wireless, a private telephone operator (PTO); Eugene Juwa; current Executive Commissioner, Stakeholder Management, Stephen Adedayo Bello and Vice President (Academics & Student Affairs) in Kano, Digital Bridge Institute (DBI), Umar Garba Danbatta, the decision was greeted by mixed reactions from Abuja to Lagos, across Nigeria and beyond.

Technology Times also revealed that telecoms investors in the cape of South Africa and the skyscrapers of UAE, two economies with deep interests in the Nigerian market have beamed their radar on the leadership change under way in the Nigerian telecoms regulator.

MTN Group of South Africa, the parent company of MTN Nigeria, which leads the mobile phone business in Nigeria with over 28 million subscribers and its wholly-owned fixed line business, VGC Communications, considers Nigeria as one of its key markets.

The Group has also launched an ambitious bid to buy into pioneer national operator, NITEL, under current privatisation exercise under way, to deepen its interests in the market.

On the shortlist: Stephen Bello of NCC

Key officials of the MTN Group in South Africa have openly admitted that the emergence of additional competition into the local marketplace with planned sale of NITEL are issues within radar alongside the impact of policy and regulatory measures under way in the market, something read as euphemism for interest in the next person that is expected to shape the direction of telecoms regulation and market in Nigeria.

This is also the mood in Telkom, South Africa’s telecoms operator that owns Nigeria’s pioneer PTO, Multilinks-Telkom. Lately, Telkom is in talks to buy up two rival CDMA operators in a bid to deepen its interest in Africa’s most vibrant telecoms market.

Last year, Mutlilinks-Telkom staked its bid and was successful in the auctions of 2.3GHz licences by the NCC but was cancelled by government following allegations that the handling of the sale was flawed and non-transparent.

Two other companies, Mobitel and Spectranet alongside Mutlilinks-Telkom, who also emerged successful in the botched sale, when they staked N4.104billion for the spectra supporting WiMax and other data services, will be watching the mood in NCC. President Yar’Adua had directed the regulator to rerun the sale.

These investors, alongside other stakeholders in the industry, comprising local and international investors, operators and industry pressure groups are monitoring the leadership change in the regulatory agency unfolding in Abuja.

At the nation’s seat of power, analysts reckon that more of political connections in the power corridors within the next few weeks may be the deciding factor following the recent Board recommendation that may have been perceived as a coup to topple the ambition of various camps jostling for the coveted regulator’s seat.

This has spurred debate among various factions over the legality of the Board to recommend persons for the appointment into the position of the EVC. The National Communications Act 2003, the enabling laws of NCC grants it the power to recommend appointment of the EVC to the President according to its provision that, “The Board shall make recommendations to the President on suitably qualified persons for appointment as the Commission’s Chief Executive and Executive Commissioners and the President shall take the Commission’s recommendations into consideration for the appointment.”

But those opposed to the choice the Board’s choice reckon that the position of the law is not absolute as the President “is not obliged” to accept the NCC Board’s recommendation since he could still go ahead and appoint whosoever he deems fit.

President, ALTON, Gbenga Adebayo

This is one avenue that politically connected persons are exploring with the anticipation that the current crisis within the Presidency, in the wake of President Yar’Adua absence from office since last year, due to ill health, could swing either ways for the two camps.

Analysing the reality of the situation on ground in Aso Rock today, an analyst who spoke with Technology Times on condition of anonymity says that the current political quagmire in Abuja may turn out to make the NCC Board recommendation a “walkover” for the Joda-led team.

According to him, the elderly veteran of the civil service understands the inner workings of government very well and may also be aided by his closeness to former President Obasanjo. Within government circle, it is openly admitted that the former President is very close to incumbent Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan. With the former’s backing, Joda should have no problem getting an approval for his recommendation for the next EVC among the three people being recommended for the job.

Also, people conversant with the politics of the public telecoms administration also point to the cordial relationship existing between the incumbent Minister of State for Information and Communications, Ikra Bilbis, who was through a Presidential directive last entrusted with the oversight function over the NCC and allied telecoms agencies, departments and parastatals under the ministry.

People in government see the directive as a tactical coup against Minister of Information and Communications, Dora Akunyili, who has waged major battles against NCC, particularly the regulatory agency’s boss, Ndukwe. The two have openly exchanged hot words, particularly during last year’s controversial 2.3GHz spectrum sales brouhaha. The Minister had then asked President Yar’Adua to cancel the sale over alleged non-transparency.

So, government insiders say with last year’s Presidential order, officially getting Akunyili off Ndukwe’s back, Bilbis is expected to ensure the Board’s recommendation is forwarded to higher government quarters and also ensure that one of the three men that have been picked emerges the next EVC with little opposition.

But people in the opposition camp weekend disagreed saying that the race is hardly over until the final announcement is made by government. Importantly, while the absence of Yar’Adua may have posed an initial setback to the calculations that the endorsement may come from Aso Rock, according to people who wager that Gwandu’s near successful move to unseat his boss last year, apart from driving a wedge between him and Ndukwe, the former is pressing all buttons to ensure he becomes the next EVC of NCC. NCC insiders reckon otherwise noting that the ambition may hardly have the prayer of his boss while he is still on that seat and on the influential NCC Board.

Gwandu and others may be looking beyond the Board to advance their ambition in such a way that may have divided the regulatory agency along various loyalty groupings. Within the industry, operators and investors are also worried over what the deepening divisions within NCC would have for the future of telecoms regulation in Nigeria in the post-Ndukwe era.

Publicly, operators continue to keep a safe and measured distance from commenting about the power tussle under way in Abuja to avoid being seen as aligned with any of the parties aiming for Ndukwe’s job. But within the confines of their boardrooms and offices, the deep concerns continue to be echoed among operators about the new leadership that may emerge in NCC and future of telecoms business.

“Head or tail, no one wins”, says an industry watcher citing that with the power tussle among insiders for the EVC’s position, it is can be safely predicted that the new man would need considerable measure of consensus building to achieve his objectives among other colleagues that may have lost out in the race.

With that, the new boss would spend valuable time battling the internal politics of the regulatory agency amid compelling tasks ahead.

Over the last few months, NCC has set about the controversial task of SIM registration, which operators have criticised. The regulator has also determined new interconnect rates and is pushing ambitious measures to declare dominance in the mobile phone market and international internet connectivity, all far-reaching regulatory measures that would profoundly change the competitive landscape.

Market driven imperatives are making the regulator take a second look at widespread access to broadband, the need to bring the nation’s telecoms policy to align with the realities of the nation’s current vision to drive its processes and operations using ICT, among other urgent tasks.

According to analysts, these compelling needs make it crucial to get the right man into NCC to further ensure regulatory predictability and promote a growth oriented telecoms industry in Nigeria in line with his primary responsibility: the execution of the policies and decisions of the Board and for the day-to-day management and supervision of the activities of the Commission.

The events of the weeks ahead in the search for the next boss at NCC would be crucial for the gains recorded in the last 10 years in Nigeria and the nation’s telecoms vision into the next decade.